Closing spread
MIN -4.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
-0.0est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.079EPA / play-0.116
- 45.9%Success rate39.2%
- +0.164EPA / dropback-0.213
- -0.044EPA / rush+0.020
- 9.7%Explosive rate7.5%
- 46.9%Third-down rate29.8%
- 62.7%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 1.96Points / drive1.36
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.008EPA / play allowed+0.030
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. ATL are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 14/24 | 239 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moe Williams | 11 | 71 | 6.5 | 2 |
| Onterrio Smith | 13 | 63 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Doug Chapman | 10 | 22 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Kelly Campbell | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Johnson | 28/40 | 352 | 2 | 2 |
| Woody Dantzler | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Duckett | 11 | 69 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Doug Johnson | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Woody Dantzler | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.0%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.60
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.03