Closing spread
MIN -4.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
-0.0est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.079EPA / play-0.116
- 45.9%Success rate39.2%
- +0.164EPA / dropback-0.213
- -0.044EPA / rush+0.020
- 9.7%Explosive rate7.5%
- 46.9%Third-down rate29.8%
- 62.7%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 1.96Points / drive1.36
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.008EPA / play allowed+0.030
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. ATL are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 52 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| MIN | Q1 11:57 | 5 | 7 | Punt | 0–3 |
| ATL | Q1 9:52 | 4 | 54 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| MIN | Q1 7:40 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 0–6 |
| ATL | Q1 4:54 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–6 |
| MIN | Q1 2:54 | 7 | 70 | Touchdown | 7–6 |
| ATL | Q2 13:35 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–6 |
| MIN | Q2 12:11 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–6 |
| ATL | Q2 10:35 | 2 | 0 | Safety | 9–6 |
| MIN | Q2 10:23 | 4 | 51 | Field goal | 12–6 |
| ATL | Q2 8:06 | 3 | 63 | Touchdown | 12–13 |
| MIN | Q2 6:56 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 12–13 |
| ATL | Q2 4:36 | 9 | 54 | Touchdown | 12–20 |
| MIN | Q2 0:10 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 12–20 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 12–20 |
| ATL | Q3 11:35 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 12–20 |
| MIN | Q3 9:24 | 5 | 55 | Touchdown | 20–20 |
| ATL | Q3 7:34 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 20–20 |
| MIN | Q3 4:40 | 4 | 77 | Touchdown | 27–20 |
| ATL | Q3 2:39 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 27–20 |
| MIN | Q3 1:28 | 7 | 59 | Touchdown | 34–20 |
| ATL | Q4 13:05 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 34–20 |
| MIN | Q4 12:47 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 34–20 |
| ATL | Q4 12:35 | 3 | 1 | Safety | 36–20 |
| MIN | Q4 11:38 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 36–20 |
| ATL | Q4 9:12 | 3 | 49 | Turnover | 36–20 |
| MIN | Q4 8:10 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 36–20 |
| ATL | Q4 6:22 | 4 | 31 | Turnover | 36–20 |
| MIN | Q4 4:33 | 3 | 11 | Field goal | 39–20 |
| ATL | Q4 2:52 | 5 | 50 | Touchdown | 39–26 |
| MIN | Q4 1:43 | 4 | 8 | Turnover on downs | 39–26 |
| ATL | Q4 0:34 | 5 | 47 | End of half | 39–26 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 14/24 | 239 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moe Williams | 11 | 71 | 6.5 | 2 |
| Onterrio Smith | 13 | 63 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Doug Chapman | 10 | 22 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Kelly Campbell | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Johnson | 28/40 | 352 | 2 | 2 |
| Woody Dantzler | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Duckett | 11 | 69 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Doug Johnson | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Woody Dantzler | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.0%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.60
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.03