Closing spread
CAR -7
Total
37.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.009EPA / play-0.070
- 42.3%Success rate39.3%
- +0.054EPA / dropback-0.010
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.132
- 7.5%Explosive rate10.2%
- 46.4%Third-down rate35.8%
- 59.5%Red-zone TD rate54.6%
- 1.71Points / drive1.35
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.018EPA / play allowed-0.075
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 16/31 | 189 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 23 | 124 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Ki-Jana Carter | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 15/23 | 124 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 30 | 159 | 5.3 | 1 |
| DeShaun Foster | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
4.79%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.47
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.03