Closing spread
GB -1
Total
45
Model margin
+2.9est.
GB perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Packers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.070EPA / play+0.065
- 46.1%Success rate45.9%
- +0.148EPA / dropback+0.126
- -0.039EPA / rush+0.001
- 10.5%Explosive rate10.4%
- 46.8%Third-down rate41.0%
- 68.2%Red-zone TD rate74.0%
- 1.98Points / drive2.11
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.012EPA / play allowed-0.077
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 12–6 since 1999
GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. GB are 12-4-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 12:59 | 3 | 29 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 11:49 | 5 | 49 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q1 9:54 | 9 | 71 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| GB | Q1 5:31 | 14 | 56 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| SEA | Q2 13:13 | 15 | 80 | Field goal | 10–14 |
| GB | Q2 5:28 | 9 | 68 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| SEA | Q2 0:36 | 4 | 37 | Field goal | 13–21 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 13–21 |
| GB | Q3 14:35 | 8 | 53 | Touchdown | 13–28 |
| SEA | Q3 11:09 | 11 | 33 | Turnover | 13–28 |
| GB | Q3 5:32 | 10 | 39 | Touchdown | 13–35 |
| SEA | Q3 0:39 | 12 | 67 | Turnover on downs | 13–35 |
| GB | Q4 11:14 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 13–35 |
| SEA | Q4 7:57 | 9 | 26 | Turnover on downs | 13–35 |
| GB | Q4 5:28 | 8 | 42 | End of half | 13–35 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 23/39 | 225 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 20 | 102 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Maurice Morris | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 19/25 | 185 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 27 | 118 | 4.4 | 2 |
| Tony Fisher | 3 | 33 | 11.0 | 1 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Najeh Davenport | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.9%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.98
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.64
- Expected margin+2.90