Closing spread
NE -1
Total
40.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Patriots
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.040EPA / play-0.043
- 42.3%Success rate40.7%
- +0.215EPA / dropback+0.048
- -0.172EPA / rush-0.161
- 9.2%Explosive rate7.5%
- 41.2%Third-down rate37.4%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate47.0%
- 1.93Points / drive1.42
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.083EPA / play allowed-0.159
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 9–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. NE are 8-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 23/45 | 391 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 15 | 35 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 2 |
| Derrick Mason | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 17/31 | 219 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 16 | 80 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Mike Cloud | 7 | 73 | 10.4 | 2 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.1%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.05
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.61