2003 · Week 5 · Division
Final
Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 12mph
Closing spread
PHI -4.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+6.1est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.061EPA / play+0.047
- 40.4%Success rate43.4%
- -0.070EPA / dropback+0.064
- -0.048EPA / rush+0.019
- 7.6%Explosive rate9.3%
- 34.4%Third-down rate36.1%
- 60.1%Red-zone TD rate65.8%
- 1.45Points / drive1.99
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.9%
- +0.048EPA / play allowed-0.031
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. PHI are 27-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Ramsey | 25/50 | 271 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trung Canidate | 8 | 17 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Patrick Ramsey | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Chad Morton | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Rock Cartwright | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 16/30 | 157 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 11 | 64 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Duce Staley | 10 | 36 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.2%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.55
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.11