Closing spread
STL -10
Total
46
Model margin
+4.5est.
STL perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 10–8 since 1999
Meetings average 51.4 points. STL are 9-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ATL–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 13:26 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 11:21 | 8 | 55 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 6:58 | 9 | 84 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| ATL | Q1 1:17 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LA | Q1 0:14 | 11 | 76 | Turnover on downs | 0–3 |
| ATL | Q2 9:55 | 8 | 52 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| LA | Q2 5:55 | 10 | 58 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| ATL | Q2 1:22 | 7 | 51 | Missed field goal | 0–10 |
| LA | Q2 0:02 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 0–10 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 74 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| ATL | Q3 12:16 | 3 | -12 | Punt | 0–17 |
| LA | Q3 10:47 | 2 | 13 | Turnover | 0–17 |
| ATL | Q3 10:13 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–17 |
| LA | Q3 8:45 | 10 | 63 | Turnover | 0–17 |
| ATL | Q3 3:04 | 2 | -1 | Safety | 0–19 |
| LA | Q3 2:15 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–19 |
| ATL | Q3 0:25 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 0–19 |
| LA | Q4 13:50 | 5 | 69 | Touchdown | 0–26 |
| ATL | Q4 10:44 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–26 |
| LA | Q4 9:30 | 4 | 25 | Turnover | 0–26 |
| LA | Q4 7:40 | 5 | 26 | Field goal | 0–29 |
| ATL | Q4 3:45 | 7 | 32 | Opp touchdown | 0–36 |
| ATL | Q4 1:33 | 3 | 5 | End of half | 0–36 |
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Johnson | 10/23 | 134 | 0 | 1 |
| Kurt Kittner | 2/5 | 21 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Duckett | 16 | 50 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
3.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.0%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.34
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.47
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.