Closing spread
BUF -1
Total
36.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Jets
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.117EPA / play-0.013
- 39.7%Success rate41.4%
- -0.140EPA / dropback+0.040
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.086
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.0%
- 31.3%Third-down rate40.0%
- 42.0%Red-zone TD rate51.3%
- 1.19Points / drive1.47
- 3.2%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.087EPA / play allowed+0.022
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 24/40 | 202 | 0 | 1 |
| Alex Van Pelt | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 18 | 53 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 11/17 | 130 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 20 | 77 | 3.9 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 10 | 33 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.57
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.19
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.50