Closing spread
TEN -8.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+6.2est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.099EPA / play+0.040
- 38.7%Success rate42.3%
- -0.096EPA / dropback+0.215
- -0.102EPA / rush-0.172
- 9.0%Explosive rate9.2%
- 30.8%Third-down rate41.2%
- 65.8%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
- 1.15Points / drive1.93
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.7%
- +0.041EPA / play allowed-0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 25–24 since 1999
HOU have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. TEN are 19-29-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | HOU–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 13:31 | 6 | 74 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| HOU | Q1 10:38 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–7 |
| TEN | Q1 8:57 | 5 | 69 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| HOU | Q1 6:12 | 10 | 62 | Punt | 0–14 |
| TEN | Q1 0:33 | 6 | 56 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| HOU | Q2 11:57 | 3 | 16 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| TEN | Q2 11:02 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–14 |
| HOU | Q2 8:56 | 6 | 40 | Punt | 0–14 |
| TEN | Q2 5:29 | 9 | 88 | Touchdown | 0–21 |
| HOU | Q2 0:57 | 5 | 63 | Field goal | 3–21 |
| TEN | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 30 | Punt | 3–21 |
| HOU | Q3 13:16 | 2 | 98 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| TEN | Q3 12:20 | 6 | 33 | Punt | 10–21 |
| HOU | Q3 8:26 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 10–21 |
| TEN | Q3 6:53 | 7 | 38 | Field goal | 10–24 |
| HOU | Q3 3:44 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 10–24 |
| TEN | Q3 1:32 | 5 | 98 | Touchdown | 10–31 |
| HOU | Q4 14:46 | 4 | 14 | Opp touchdown | 10–38 |
| HOU | Q4 13:03 | 11 | 60 | Touchdown | 17–38 |
| TEN | Q4 9:06 | 8 | 48 | Punt | 17–38 |
| HOU | Q4 3:21 | 8 | 72 | Turnover | 17–38 |
| TEN | Q4 1:33 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–38 |
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 25/42 | 371 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domanick Williams | 7 | 59 | 8.4 | 0 |
| Tony Hollings | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Stacey Mack | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 18/27 | 421 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 19 | 60 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Justin McCareins | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Billy Volek | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
1.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.3%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.16
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+6.16