Closing spread
TEN -8.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+6.2est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.099EPA / play+0.040
- 38.7%Success rate42.3%
- -0.096EPA / dropback+0.215
- -0.102EPA / rush-0.172
- 9.0%Explosive rate9.2%
- 30.8%Third-down rate41.2%
- 65.8%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
- 1.15Points / drive1.93
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.7%
- +0.041EPA / play allowed-0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 24–24 since 1999
HOU have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. TEN are 19-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 25/42 | 371 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domanick Williams | 7 | 59 | 8.4 | 0 |
| Tony Hollings | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Stacey Mack | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 18/27 | 421 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 19 | 60 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Justin McCareins | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Billy Volek | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
1.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.3%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.16
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+6.16