Closing spread
NE -2.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+6.7est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.123EPA / play-0.043
- 41.7%Success rate40.7%
- -0.087EPA / dropback+0.048
- -0.188EPA / rush-0.161
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.5%
- 32.9%Third-down rate37.4%
- 39.7%Red-zone TD rate47.0%
- 0.93Points / drive1.42
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.2%
- +0.013EPA / play allowed-0.159
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 6–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40.6 points. NE are 3-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 35/59 | 314 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 22 | 71 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Delvin Joyce | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 8/21 | 112 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Faulk | 14 | 87 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Mike Cloud | 9 | 23 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Troy Brown | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| David Patten | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
7.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.8%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.18
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.74