Closing spread
CLE -3.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
-0.7est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 38.6 points. CLE are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–CLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 17 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 13:37 | 7 | 34 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| CLE | Q1 9:48 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 6:06 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–0 |
| CLE | Q1 4:27 | 9 | 46 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| LV | Q2 14:55 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 7–3 |
| CLE | Q2 11:07 | 13 | 37 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LV | Q2 4:39 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–3 |
| CLE | Q2 2:48 | 7 | 4 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LV | Q2 1:08 | 3 | 17 | End of half | 7–3 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–3 |
| CLE | Q3 13:33 | 6 | 34 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LV | Q3 10:11 | 9 | 60 | Punt | 7–3 |
| CLE | Q3 4:57 | 11 | 61 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| LV | Q3 0:14 | 11 | 49 | Punt | 7–10 |
| CLE | Q4 7:54 | 10 | 70 | Field goal | 7–13 |
| LV | Q4 2:29 | 13 | 58 | Turnover on downs | 7–13 |
| CLE | Q4 0:23 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 16/26 | 127 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Green | 26 | 145 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Phil Dawson | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| James Jackson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.1%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.86
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.43
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.73
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.