Closing spread
CLE -3.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
-0.7est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 38.6 points. CLE are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 16/26 | 127 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Green | 26 | 145 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Phil Dawson | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| James Jackson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.1%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.86
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.43
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.73
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.