Closing spread
DAL -1
Total
37.5
Model margin
+1.0est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.047EPA / play-0.085
- 43.4%Success rate39.6%
- +0.064EPA / dropback-0.053
- +0.019EPA / rush-0.123
- 9.3%Explosive rate9.1%
- 36.1%Third-down rate36.8%
- 65.8%Red-zone TD rate50.3%
- 1.99Points / drive1.23
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.031EPA / play allowed-0.125
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–27 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. DAL are 28-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PHI–DAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Q1 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| PHI | Q1 14:57 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q1 11:58 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| PHI | Q1 10:12 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q1 9:01 | 4 | 20 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| PHI | Q1 7:03 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q1 6:04 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| PHI | Q1 3:55 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q1 2:30 | 6 | 6 | Punt | 0–7 |
| PHI | Q2 14:50 | 9 | 50 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| DAL | Q2 10:20 | 9 | 22 | Punt | 7–7 |
| PHI | Q2 5:04 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–7 |
| DAL | Q2 3:28 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 7–7 |
| PHI | Q2 1:42 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–7 |
| DAL | Q2 1:17 | 4 | 18 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| PHI | Q2 0:12 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 7–10 |
| PHI | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 36 | Punt | 7–10 |
| DAL | Q3 10:08 | 11 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| PHI | Q3 4:00 | 3 | 55 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| DAL | Q3 2:56 | 7 | 72 | Field goal | 14–20 |
| PHI | Q4 14:12 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 14–20 |
| DAL | Q4 12:37 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–20 |
| PHI | Q4 10:59 | 15 | 56 | Touchdown | 21–20 |
| DAL | Q4 4:14 | 6 | 36 | Field goal | 21–23 |
| PHI | Q4 1:11 | 3 | -5 | Turnover | 21–23 |
| DAL | Q4 0:48 | 2 | -3 | End of half | 21–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 11/26 | 126 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Correll Buckhalter | 11 | 52 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Brian Westbrook | 8 | 37 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Duce Staley | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Carter | 14/25 | 146 | 0 | 1 |
| Aveion Cason | 1/1 | 37 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Hambrick | 18 | 46 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Aveion Cason | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Quincy Carter | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.7%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.58
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.98