Closing spread
DAL -1
Total
37.5
Model margin
+1.0est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.047EPA / play-0.085
- 43.4%Success rate39.6%
- +0.064EPA / dropback-0.053
- +0.019EPA / rush-0.123
- 9.3%Explosive rate9.1%
- 36.1%Third-down rate36.8%
- 65.8%Red-zone TD rate50.3%
- 1.99Points / drive1.23
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.031EPA / play allowed-0.125
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. DAL are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 11/26 | 126 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Correll Buckhalter | 11 | 52 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Brian Westbrook | 8 | 37 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Duce Staley | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Carter | 14/25 | 146 | 0 | 1 |
| Aveion Cason | 1/1 | 37 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Hambrick | 18 | 46 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Aveion Cason | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Quincy Carter | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.7%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.58
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.98