2003 · Week 6

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Tommy Maddox

14·17

Broncos

Denver

QB Steve Beuerlein

Invesco Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

DEN -6.5

Total

45

Model margin

-1.9est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBroncos
  • -0.084EPA / play+0.045
  • 41.6%Success rate44.6%
  • -0.022EPA / dropback+0.043
  • -0.170EPA / rush+0.047
  • 7.5%Explosive rate8.6%
  • 36.1%Third-down rate39.9%
  • 54.7%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
  • 1.33Points / drive1.96
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.0%
  • -0.051EPA / play allowed-0.073

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 7–6 since 1999

PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45 points. DEN are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2PIT @ DEN13–6PIT
2021 · W5DEN @ PIT19–27PIT
2020 · W2DEN @ PIT21–26PIT
2018 · W12PIT @ DEN17–24DEN
2015 · playoffsPIT @ DEN16–23DEN
2015 · W15DEN @ PIT27–34PIT
2012 · W1PIT @ DEN19–31DEN
2011 · playoffsPIT @ DEN23–29DEN

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tommy Maddox19/3018200
Antwaan Randle El1/1400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Bettis14342.41
Amos Zereoue10151.50
Hines Ward294.50
Antwaan Randle El273.50

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve Beuerlein17/2817222

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clinton Portis15473.10
Rod Smith12626.00
Steve Beuerlein155.00
Reuben Droughns1-1-1.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

4.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.1%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.28
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-4.71
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.87