Closing spread
DEN -6.5
Total
45
Model margin
-1.9est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.084EPA / play+0.045
- 41.6%Success rate44.6%
- -0.022EPA / dropback+0.043
- -0.170EPA / rush+0.047
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.6%
- 36.1%Third-down rate39.9%
- 54.7%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
- 1.33Points / drive1.96
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.0%
- -0.051EPA / play allowed-0.073
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 7–6 since 1999
PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45 points. DEN are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 26 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 10:42 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 10:32 | 3 | 4 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| DEN | Q1 9:00 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 3–0 |
| PIT | Q1 6:31 | 8 | 20 | Punt | 3–0 |
| DEN | Q1 1:40 | 8 | 64 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| PIT | Q2 12:09 | 8 | 23 | Punt | 3–7 |
| DEN | Q2 8:04 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| PIT | Q2 7:55 | 4 | 2 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| DEN | Q2 6:15 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 6–7 |
| PIT | Q2 3:55 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 6–7 |
| DEN | Q2 2:59 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 6–7 |
| PIT | Q2 1:25 | 4 | 6 | End of half | 6–7 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 6–7 |
| PIT | Q3 12:42 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 6–7 |
| DEN | Q3 11:21 | 6 | 9 | Turnover | 6–7 |
| PIT | Q3 8:59 | 7 | 24 | Punt | 6–7 |
| DEN | Q3 4:45 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 6–7 |
| PIT | Q3 3:30 | 7 | 23 | Punt | 6–7 |
| DEN | Q4 14:42 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 6–7 |
| PIT | Q4 12:47 | 3 | 17 | Turnover | 6–7 |
| DEN | Q4 11:23 | 4 | 52 | Touchdown | 6–14 |
| PIT | Q4 9:22 | 15 | 70 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| DEN | Q4 2:41 | 9 | 46 | Field goal | 14–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Maddox | 19/30 | 182 | 0 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1/1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 14 | 34 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Amos Zereoue | 10 | 15 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 17/28 | 172 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 15 | 47 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 1 | 26 | 26.0 | 0 |
| Steve Beuerlein | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Reuben Droughns | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
4.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.1%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.28
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-4.71
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.87