Closing spread
SEA -3.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play+0.070
- 43.9%Success rate46.1%
- +0.124EPA / dropback+0.148
- -0.099EPA / rush-0.039
- 9.2%Explosive rate10.5%
- 41.6%Third-down rate46.8%
- 48.9%Red-zone TD rate68.2%
- 1.83Points / drive1.98
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.045EPA / play allowed-0.012
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SEA are 29-21-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 16/27 | 168 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrison Hearst | 16 | 62 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Kevan Barlow | 9 | 40 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Arnaz Battle | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 1 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 17/27 | 207 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 22 | 77 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Koren Robinson | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.3%
Expected total
46.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.89
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.45