Closing spread
SEA -3.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play+0.070
- 43.9%Success rate46.1%
- +0.124EPA / dropback+0.148
- -0.099EPA / rush-0.039
- 9.2%Explosive rate10.5%
- 41.6%Third-down rate46.8%
- 48.9%Red-zone TD rate68.2%
- 1.83Points / drive1.98
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.045EPA / play allowed-0.012
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–21 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. SEA are 29-22-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 35 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 12:18 | 9 | 67 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 7:35 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q1 5:46 | 10 | 49 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| SF | Q2 14:58 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 0–10 |
| SEA | Q2 13:15 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 0–10 |
| SF | Q2 10:33 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–10 |
| SEA | Q2 9:16 | 9 | 72 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| SF | Q2 5:04 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–17 |
| SEA | Q2 2:55 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 0–17 |
| SF | Q2 1:40 | 7 | 46 | Field goal | 3–17 |
| SEA | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–17 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–17 |
| SF | Q3 13:41 | 7 | 33 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| SEA | Q3 10:38 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 10–17 |
| SF | Q3 8:18 | 8 | 33 | Punt | 10–17 |
| SEA | Q3 4:04 | 3 | -4 | Turnover | 10–17 |
| SF | Q3 3:03 | 6 | 19 | Touchdown | 16–17 |
| SEA | Q3 0:56 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 16–17 |
| SF | Q4 13:53 | 10 | 50 | Field goal | 19–17 |
| SEA | Q4 8:09 | 9 | 46 | Field goal | 19–20 |
| SF | Q4 3:04 | 4 | 20 | Turnover | 19–20 |
| SEA | Q4 1:55 | 4 | 31 | End of half | 19–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 16/27 | 168 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrison Hearst | 16 | 62 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Kevan Barlow | 9 | 40 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Arnaz Battle | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 1 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 17/27 | 207 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 22 | 77 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Koren Robinson | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.3%
Expected total
46.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.89
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.45