2003 · Week 6

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Brad Johnson

35·13

Commanders

Washington

QB Patrick Ramsey

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

TB -3.5

Total

37

Model margin

+0.5est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapCommanders
  • -0.043EPA / play-0.061
  • 41.6%Success rate40.4%
  • +0.014EPA / dropback-0.070
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.048
  • 7.3%Explosive rate7.6%
  • 35.7%Third-down rate34.4%
  • 68.3%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
  • 1.38Points / drive1.45
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.5%
  • -0.116EPA / play allowed+0.048

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 9–9 since 1999

Meetings average 40.5 points. WAS are 9-7-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · playoffsWAS @ TB23–20WAS
2024 · W1WAS @ TB20–37TB
2021 · W10TB @ WAS19–29WAS
2020 · playoffsTB @ WAS31–23TB
2018 · W10WAS @ TB16–3WAS
2015 · W7TB @ WAS30–31WAS
2014 · W11TB @ WAS27–7TB
2012 · W4WAS @ TB24–22WAS

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brad Johnson22/3026840

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Pittman17623.60
Thomas Jones5336.60
Aaron Stecker11313.00
Brad Johnson231.50

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Ramsey21/3221112
Rob Johnson4/43500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ladell Betts13372.80
Trung Canidate8273.40
Rock Cartwright242.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

7.29%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.4%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.15
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+0.49