2003 · Week 6
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
TB -3.5
Total
37
Model margin
+0.5est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.043EPA / play-0.061
- 41.6%Success rate40.4%
- +0.014EPA / dropback-0.070
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.048
- 7.3%Explosive rate7.6%
- 35.7%Third-down rate34.4%
- 68.3%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 1.38Points / drive1.45
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.116EPA / play allowed+0.048
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
Meetings average 40.5 points. WAS are 9-7-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–WAS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 25 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 10:23 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 8:47 | 17 | 86 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| TB | Q1 0:15 | 17 | 72 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| WAS | Q2 6:23 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–3 |
| TB | Q2 4:50 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–3 |
| WAS | Q2 3:48 | 12 | 47 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| TB | Q2 0:14 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–10 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–10 |
| WAS | Q3 14:07 | 6 | 27 | Field goal | 7–13 |
| TB | Q3 10:21 | 8 | 94 | Touchdown | 14–13 |
| WAS | Q3 6:26 | 2 | 22 | Turnover | 14–13 |
| TB | Q3 5:30 | 13 | 86 | Touchdown | 21–13 |
| WAS | Q4 13:31 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 21–13 |
| TB | Q4 11:43 | 5 | 70 | Touchdown | 28–13 |
| WAS | Q4 8:48 | 6 | 25 | Opp touchdown | 35–13 |
| WAS | Q4 6:55 | 8 | 33 | Turnover on downs | 35–13 |
| TB | Q4 2:37 | 4 | 36 | End of half | 35–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 22/30 | 268 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 17 | 62 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 5 | 33 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Ramsey | 21/32 | 211 | 1 | 2 |
| Rob Johnson | 4/4 | 35 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladell Betts | 13 | 37 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Trung Canidate | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Rock Cartwright | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.4%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.15
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.49