2003 · Week 7

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Quincy Carter

38·7

Lions

Detroit

QB Joey Harrington

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DAL -3

Total

39

Model margin

+0.8est.

DET perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapLions
  • -0.085EPA / play-0.156
  • 39.6%Success rate36.7%
  • -0.053EPA / dropback-0.144
  • -0.123EPA / rush-0.178
  • 9.1%Explosive rate5.6%
  • 36.8%Third-down rate34.9%
  • 50.3%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
  • 1.23Points / drive1.04
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.6%
  • -0.125EPA / play allowed-0.013

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 11–7 since 1999

DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. DET are 9-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14DAL @ DET30–44DET
2024 · W6DET @ DAL47–9DET
2023 · W17DET @ DAL19–20DAL
2022 · W7DET @ DAL6–24DAL
2019 · W11DAL @ DET35–27DAL
2018 · W4DET @ DAL24–26DAL
2016 · W16DET @ DAL21–42DAL
2014 · playoffsDET @ DAL20–24DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–DET
DETQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
DALQ1 13:20519Punt0–0
DETQ1 10:063-5Punt0–6
DALQ1 8:3813Opp touchdown0–7
DALQ1 8:23737Touchdown7–7
DETQ1 4:58922Punt7–7
DALQ2 14:49753Touchdown14–7
DETQ2 11:3135Turnover20–7
DALQ2 10:2718Touchdown21–7
DETQ2 10:2137Punt21–7
DALQ2 8:45529Punt21–7
DETQ2 5:0326Opp touchdown28–7
DETQ2 4:20513Punt28–7
DALQ2 1:35938Turnover on downs28–7
DETQ2 0:0600End of half28–7
DALQ3 15:001476Touchdown35–7
DETQ3 7:3337Punt35–7
DALQ3 6:321159Field goal38–7
DETQ4 14:5735Punt38–7
DALQ4 13:543-2Punt38–7
DETQ4 12:05212Turnover38–7
DALQ4 11:5135Punt38–7
DETQ4 9:311252Turnover on downs38–7
DALQ4 4:3939Punt38–7
DETQ4 2:19625Turnover38–7
DALQ4 1:2100End of half38–7

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Quincy Carter18/2519030
Chad Hutchinson1/2800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Troy Hambrick24743.11
Quincy Carter2136.50
Aveion Cason600.00
Jamar Martin100.00
Antonio Bryant1-2-2.00
Chad Hutchinson2-3-1.50

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike McMahon5/205101
Joey Harrington5/133002

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Olandis Gary11373.40
Shawn Bryson6203.30
Mike McMahon3186.00
Az-Zahir Hakim188.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

7.26%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.2%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.34
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+0.79