Closing spread
DAL -3
Total
39
Model margin
+0.8est.
DET perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.085EPA / play-0.156
- 39.6%Success rate36.7%
- -0.053EPA / dropback-0.144
- -0.123EPA / rush-0.178
- 9.1%Explosive rate5.6%
- 36.8%Third-down rate34.9%
- 50.3%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
- 1.23Points / drive1.04
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.125EPA / play allowed-0.013
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 11–7 since 1999
DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. DET are 9-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Carter | 18/25 | 190 | 3 | 0 |
| Chad Hutchinson | 1/2 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Hambrick | 24 | 74 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Quincy Carter | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Aveion Cason | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Jamar Martin | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Antonio Bryant | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
| Chad Hutchinson | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike McMahon | 5/20 | 51 | 0 | 1 |
| Joey Harrington | 5/13 | 30 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olandis Gary | 11 | 37 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Mike McMahon | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Az-Zahir Hakim | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.2%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.34
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+0.79