Closing spread
STL -4
Total
48.5
Model margin
+0.2est.
STL perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
GB lead 11–4 since 1999
GB have won 5 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. STL are 3-12 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | GB–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 20 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 12:06 | 6 | 14 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LA | Q1 10:08 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LA | Q1 9:02 | 3 | 45 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| GB | Q1 7:24 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 3–7 |
| GB | Q1 7:19 | 2 | 5 | Punt | 3–7 |
| GB | Q1 6:23 | 2 | 10 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LA | Q1 4:49 | 3 | 47 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| GB | Q1 3:47 | 7 | 42 | Turnover | 3–14 |
| LA | Q2 15:00 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 3–14 |
| GB | Q2 14:47 | 3 | 47 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| LA | Q2 13:23 | 6 | 4 | Punt | 10–14 |
| GB | Q2 9:18 | 11 | 52 | Turnover | 10–14 |
| LA | Q2 4:06 | 12 | 61 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| GB | Q2 0:57 | 2 | 7 | End of half | 10–21 |
| GB | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 56 | Touchdown | 17–21 |
| LA | Q3 11:56 | 5 | 35 | Punt | 17–21 |
| GB | Q3 9:34 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 17–21 |
| LA | Q3 6:55 | 5 | 71 | Touchdown | 17–28 |
| GB | Q3 4:11 | 7 | 32 | Punt | 17–28 |
| LA | Q3 0:27 | 9 | 36 | Punt | 17–28 |
| GB | Q4 10:09 | 3 | -12 | Punt | 17–28 |
| LA | Q4 8:18 | 5 | 41 | Field goal | 17–31 |
| GB | Q4 4:52 | 2 | 19 | Turnover | 17–31 |
| LA | Q4 4:00 | 3 | -2 | Field goal | 17–34 |
| GB | Q4 2:56 | 4 | 86 | Touchdown | 24–34 |
| LA | Q4 1:48 | 2 | 11 | End of half | 24–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 23/32 | 268 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najeh Davenport | 5 | 74 | 14.8 | 1 |
| Ahman Green | 20 | 35 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.7%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.25
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.23
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.