Closing spread
MIA -6.5
Total
37
Model margin
+0.6est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.043EPA / play-0.093
- 40.7%Success rate39.3%
- +0.048EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.161EPA / rush-0.100
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.6%
- 37.4%Third-down rate33.0%
- 47.0%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 1.42Points / drive1.45
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.3%
- -0.159EPA / play allowed-0.116
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 28-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 24/34 | 283 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Faulk | 18 | 38 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Mike Cloud | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Fred McCrary | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 20/35 | 230 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 27 | 94 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
4.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.5%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.02
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.55