Closing spread
NO -3
Total
42
Model margin
-0.4est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.009EPA / play-0.116
- 42.3%Success rate39.2%
- +0.054EPA / dropback-0.213
- -0.106EPA / rush+0.020
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.5%
- 46.4%Third-down rate29.8%
- 59.5%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 1.71Points / drive1.36
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.018EPA / play allowed+0.030
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. ATL are 24-30 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 23/30 | 352 | 3 | 0 |
| Todd Bouman | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 21 | 116 | 5.5 | 2 |
| Ki-Jana Carter | 10 | 21 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Aaron Brooks | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Fred McAfee | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Todd Bouman | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Kittner | 9/29 | 115 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 6 | 82 | 13.7 | 1 |
| T.J. Duckett | 14 | 42 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Justin Griffith | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kurt Kittner | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.9%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.96
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.97
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-0.44