Closing spread
NYJ -3.5
Total
38
Model margin
+1.9est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.013EPA / play-0.099
- 41.4%Success rate38.7%
- +0.040EPA / dropback-0.096
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.102
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.0%
- 40.0%Third-down rate30.8%
- 51.3%Red-zone TD rate65.8%
- 1.47Points / drive1.15
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.8%
- +0.022EPA / play allowed+0.041
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 8–3 since 1999
NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.2 points. HOU are 2-8-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYJ–HOU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 13:24 | 8 | 61 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NYJ | Q1 8:53 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| HOU | Q1 7:11 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NYJ | Q1 5:27 | 3 | -19 | Punt | 0–7 |
| HOU | Q1 4:05 | 8 | 64 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| NYJ | Q2 14:56 | 9 | 39 | Punt | 0–14 |
| HOU | Q2 10:24 | 10 | 58 | Punt | 0–14 |
| NYJ | Q2 3:38 | 7 | 91 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| HOU | Q2 1:22 | 3 | 22 | End of half | 7–14 |
| HOU | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 7–14 |
| NYJ | Q3 12:05 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 7–14 |
| HOU | Q3 9:07 | 8 | 34 | Punt | 7–14 |
| NYJ | Q3 4:49 | 8 | 59 | Field goal | 10–14 |
| HOU | Q3 1:36 | 3 | 19 | Punt | 10–14 |
| NYJ | Q4 13:45 | 9 | 21 | Field goal | 13–14 |
| HOU | Q4 9:05 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 13–14 |
| NYJ | Q4 6:05 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 13–14 |
| HOU | Q4 4:28 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 13–14 |
| NYJ | Q4 2:48 | 8 | 86 | Touchdown | 19–14 |
| HOU | Q4 1:21 | 5 | 18 | Turnover on downs | 19–14 |
| NYJ | Q4 0:21 | 1 | -5 | End of half | 19–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 15/29 | 182 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 17 | 88 | 5.2 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 7 | 40 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 15/23 | 170 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domanick Williams | 27 | 129 | 4.8 | 0 |
| David Carr | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Stacey Mack | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 2 |
| Andre Johnson | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Tony Hollings | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.88
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.19
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.87