Closing spread
NYG -3
Total
37
Model margin
-1.7est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.047EPA / play-0.123
- 43.4%Success rate41.7%
- +0.064EPA / dropback-0.087
- +0.019EPA / rush-0.188
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.0%
- 36.1%Third-down rate32.9%
- 65.8%Red-zone TD rate39.7%
- 1.99Points / drive0.93
- 1.9%Turnover rate3.3%
- -0.031EPA / play allowed+0.013
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. NYG are 27-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 9/23 | 64 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 15 | 67 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 22/36 | 174 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 19 | 79 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 16 | 64 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Delvin Joyce | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.6%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.24
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.68