2003 · Week 7

Final

Chargers

San Diego

QB Drew Brees

26·20

Browns

Cleveland

QB Tim Couch

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

CLE -3.5

Total

41

Model margin

-1.3est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

SD lead 11–3 since 1999

CHARGERS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. CLE are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9LAC @ CLE27–10CHARGERS
2022 · W5LAC @ CLE30–28CHARGERS
2021 · W5CLE @ LAC42–47CHARGERS
2018 · W6LAC @ CLE38–14CHARGERS
2017 · W13CLE @ LAC10–19CHARGERS
2016 · W16SD @ CLE17–20CLE
2015 · W4CLE @ SD27–30CHARGERS
2012 · W8SD @ CLE6–7CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSD–CLE
CLEQ1 15:00641Missed field goal0–0
LACQ1 10:57722Field goal3–0
CLEQ1 7:1841Punt3–0
LACQ1 5:28638Field goal6–0
CLEQ1 2:5767Turnover on downs6–0
LACQ1 1:0734Punt6–0
CLEQ1 0:03422Punt6–0
LACQ2 13:2238Punt6–0
CLEQ2 11:56418Punt6–0
LACQ2 9:55522Punt6–0
CLEQ2 6:43311Opp touchdown13–0
CLEQ2 5:271334Field goal13–3
LACQ2 0:35339Missed field goal13–3
LACQ3 15:0010Turnover13–3
CLEQ3 14:4638Field goal13–6
LACQ3 12:44170Touchdown20–6
CLEQ3 12:2733Punt20–6
LACQ3 10:1679Turnover on downs20–6
CLEQ3 5:56414Turnover20–6
LACQ3 4:3428Field goal20–6
LACQ3 3:0610Field goal23–6
LACQ3 3:0100Field goal23–6
CLEQ3 2:57229Touchdown23–6
CLEQ3 1:52617Touchdown23–13
LACQ4 14:5200Touchdown23–13
CLEQ4 14:44835Touchdown23–20
LACQ4 11:401453Field goal26–20
CLEQ4 3:44614Turnover on downs26–20
LACQ4 2:15616Punt26–20
CLEQ4 0:25223End of half26–20

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Couch13/2410202
Kelly Holcomb11/199020
Kevin Johnson0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
William Green14654.60
James Jackson5275.40
Jamel White393.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

2.38%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.6%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.86
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.43
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin-1.29

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.