Closing spread
CLE -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
-1.3est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 11–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. CLE are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 13/24 | 102 | 0 | 2 |
| Kelly Holcomb | 11/19 | 90 | 2 | 0 |
| Kevin Johnson | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Green | 14 | 65 | 4.6 | 0 |
| James Jackson | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.6%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.86
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.43
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-1.29
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.