Closing spread
KC -5.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+5.0est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.117EPA / play+0.124
- 39.7%Success rate47.9%
- -0.140EPA / dropback+0.163
- -0.085EPA / rush+0.069
- 7.4%Explosive rate10.6%
- 31.3%Third-down rate42.4%
- 42.0%Red-zone TD rate79.8%
- 1.19Points / drive2.38
- 3.2%Turnover rate1.6%
- -0.087EPA / play allowed-0.012
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 12–11 since 1999
Meetings average 45.3 points. KC are 9-14 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 12:12 | 3 | 3 | Safety | 2–0 |
| BUF | Q1 10:39 | 6 | 6 | Punt | 2–0 |
| KC | Q1 6:21 | 4 | 80 | Touchdown | 2–7 |
| BUF | Q1 5:12 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 2–7 |
| KC | Q1 4:12 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 2–7 |
| BUF | Q1 3:17 | 3 | 3 | Missed field goal | 2–7 |
| KC | Q1 1:52 | 6 | 61 | Touchdown | 2–14 |
| BUF | Q2 14:16 | 6 | 32 | Turnover | 2–14 |
| KC | Q2 11:54 | 8 | 55 | Touchdown | 2–21 |
| BUF | Q2 7:35 | 9 | 54 | Field goal | 5–21 |
| KC | Q2 2:56 | 10 | 77 | Touchdown | 5–28 |
| BUF | Q2 0:10 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 5–28 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 5–28 |
| BUF | Q3 13:30 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 5–28 |
| KC | Q3 13:20 | 8 | 30 | Punt | 5–28 |
| BUF | Q3 9:38 | 13 | 83 | Turnover | 5–28 |
| KC | Q3 1:48 | 7 | 37 | Punt | 5–28 |
| BUF | Q4 13:11 | 8 | 20 | Turnover on downs | 5–28 |
| KC | Q4 10:24 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 5–28 |
| BUF | Q4 9:21 | 5 | 16 | Turnover | 5–34 |
| KC | Q4 7:25 | 1 | 15 | Touchdown | 5–35 |
| BUF | Q4 7:16 | 4 | 12 | Turnover | 5–35 |
| KC | Q4 5:42 | 3 | -5 | Field goal | 5–38 |
| BUF | Q4 4:02 | 2 | 3 | Turnover | 5–38 |
| KC | Q4 3:21 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 5–38 |
| BUF | Q4 1:13 | 2 | 6 | End of half | 5–38 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 23/34 | 153 | 0 | 3 |
| Alex Van Pelt | 2/4 | 12 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 22 | 124 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 20/35 | 273 | 2 | 0 |
| Todd Collins | 1/2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 15 | 83 | 5.5 | 3 |
| Trent Green | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Johnnie Morton | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
3.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.4%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.55
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+5.03