Closing spread
NO -3
Total
39.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
NO perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.070EPA / play-0.009
- 39.3%Success rate42.3%
- -0.010EPA / dropback+0.054
- -0.132EPA / rush-0.106
- 10.2%Explosive rate7.5%
- 35.8%Third-down rate46.4%
- 54.6%Red-zone TD rate59.5%
- 1.35Points / drive1.71
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.075EPA / play allowed-0.018
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 12/27 | 148 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 31 | 178 | 5.7 | 2 |
| DeShaun Foster | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 20/33 | 187 | 2 | 1 |
| Joe Horn | 1/1 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 26 | 101 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Ki-Jana Carter | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.7%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.47
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.09