2003 · Week 8
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
TB -6
Total
37
Model margin
+2.7est.
TB perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.085EPA / play-0.043
- 39.6%Success rate41.6%
- -0.053EPA / dropback+0.014
- -0.123EPA / rush-0.134
- 9.1%Explosive rate7.3%
- 36.8%Third-down rate35.7%
- 50.3%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
- 1.23Points / drive1.38
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.125EPA / play allowed-0.116
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 9–6 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 36.6 points. TB are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Carter | 15/25 | 140 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Hambrick | 11 | 25 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Quincy Carter | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Terry Glenn | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Aveion Cason | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 13/26 | 151 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 30 | 113 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
3.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.4%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.18
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.74