2003 · Week 8
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
TB -6
Total
37
Model margin
+2.7est.
TB perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.085EPA / play-0.043
- 39.6%Success rate41.6%
- -0.053EPA / dropback+0.014
- -0.123EPA / rush-0.134
- 9.1%Explosive rate7.3%
- 36.8%Third-down rate35.7%
- 50.3%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
- 1.23Points / drive1.38
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.125EPA / play allowed-0.116
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 36.8 points. TB are 7-8-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 12:55 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 11:02 | 5 | 26 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 7:29 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 6:28 | 8 | 40 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 1:58 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 0:10 | 3 | -1 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| TB | Q2 14:11 | 5 | 28 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| DAL | Q2 10:53 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–3 |
| TB | Q2 8:43 | 8 | 73 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| DAL | Q2 4:13 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 0–10 |
| TB | Q2 1:45 | 7 | 23 | End of half | 0–10 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 0–10 |
| DAL | Q3 12:56 | 3 | 1 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| TB | Q3 11:38 | 5 | 13 | Field goal | 0–13 |
| DAL | Q3 9:24 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 0–13 |
| TB | Q3 6:46 | 8 | 41 | Field goal | 0–16 |
| DAL | Q3 2:03 | 6 | 23 | Turnover on downs | 0–16 |
| TB | Q4 14:53 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–16 |
| DAL | Q4 13:15 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–16 |
| TB | Q4 11:26 | 9 | 36 | Missed field goal | 0–16 |
| DAL | Q4 5:45 | 5 | 33 | Turnover | 0–16 |
| TB | Q4 4:09 | 6 | 30 | End of half | 0–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Carter | 15/25 | 140 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Hambrick | 11 | 25 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Quincy Carter | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Terry Glenn | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Aveion Cason | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 13/26 | 151 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 30 | 113 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
3.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.4%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.18
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.74