Closing spread
CHI -3
Total
37.5
Model margin
+6.6est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.156EPA / play-0.100
- 36.7%Success rate38.3%
- -0.144EPA / dropback-0.156
- -0.178EPA / rush-0.016
- 5.6%Explosive rate7.4%
- 34.9%Third-down rate33.9%
- 47.3%Red-zone TD rate54.5%
- 1.04Points / drive1.44
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.013EPA / play allowed-0.013
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DET–CHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 23 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 13:01 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 10:07 | 11 | 35 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 4:47 | 9 | 30 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 0:17 | 7 | 29 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q2 11:28 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DET | Q2 8:58 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q2 8:47 | 3 | 29 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| DET | Q2 7:22 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CHI | Q2 5:15 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DET | Q2 3:45 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CHI | Q2 1:03 | 6 | 64 | Field goal | 0–16 |
| CHI | Q3 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| DET | Q3 14:46 | 6 | 26 | Turnover | 0–17 |
| CHI | Q3 12:19 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 0–17 |
| DET | Q3 11:19 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 0–17 |
| CHI | Q3 9:00 | 8 | 53 | Touchdown | 6–24 |
| DET | Q3 5:23 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 8–24 |
| CHI | Q3 5:10 | 3 | 14 | Punt | 8–24 |
| DET | Q3 2:45 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 8–24 |
| CHI | Q3 1:51 | 11 | 42 | Missed field goal | 8–24 |
| DET | Q4 9:12 | 16 | 59 | Turnover on downs | 8–24 |
| CHI | Q4 2:05 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 8–24 |
| DET | Q4 1:38 | 5 | 43 | Touchdown | 16–24 |
| CHI | Q4 0:53 | 0 | 0 | — | 16–24 |
| CHI | Q4 0:52 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 16–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 23/40 | 180 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Bryson | 14 | 67 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 20/31 | 207 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Forsey | 19 | 56 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Chris Chandler | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Rabih Abdullah | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
7.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.5%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.77
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.29
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.62