Closing spread
CHI -3
Total
37.5
Model margin
+6.6est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.156EPA / play-0.100
- 36.7%Success rate38.3%
- -0.144EPA / dropback-0.156
- -0.178EPA / rush-0.016
- 5.6%Explosive rate7.4%
- 34.9%Third-down rate33.9%
- 47.3%Red-zone TD rate54.5%
- 1.04Points / drive1.44
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.013EPA / play allowed-0.013
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 23/40 | 180 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Bryson | 14 | 67 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 20/31 | 207 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Forsey | 19 | 56 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Chris Chandler | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Rabih Abdullah | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
7.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.5%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.77
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.29
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.62