Closing spread
SF -7
Total
41
Model margin
-0.4est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
4.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play-0.154
- 43.9%Success rate39.4%
- +0.124EPA / dropback-0.108
- -0.099EPA / rush-0.236
- 9.2%Explosive rate7.0%
- 41.6%Third-down rate37.2%
- 48.9%Red-zone TD rate46.3%
- 1.83Points / drive0.93
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.4%
- -0.045EPA / play allowed+0.075
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 29–22 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. ARI are 24-26-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 13:22 | 5 | 45 | Touchdown | 6–0 |
| ARI | Q1 11:02 | 14 | 80 | Touchdown | 6–7 |
| SF | Q1 3:52 | 9 | 51 | Missed field goal | 6–7 |
| ARI | Q2 14:48 | 6 | 23 | Turnover | 6–7 |
| SF | Q2 11:22 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 6–7 |
| ARI | Q2 10:26 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 6–7 |
| SF | Q2 8:03 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 6–7 |
| ARI | Q2 4:40 | 8 | 35 | Field goal | 6–10 |
| SF | Q2 0:28 | 1 | 6 | End of half | 6–10 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 6–10 |
| ARI | Q3 13:24 | 5 | 34 | Missed field goal | 6–10 |
| SF | Q3 10:28 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 6–10 |
| ARI | Q3 8:57 | 3 | 9 | Field goal | 6–13 |
| SF | Q3 7:53 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 6–13 |
| ARI | Q3 6:24 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 6–13 |
| SF | Q3 3:11 | 5 | 35 | Turnover | 6–13 |
| ARI | Q3 0:24 | 5 | 20 | Missed field goal | 6–13 |
| SF | Q4 12:26 | 12 | 52 | Touchdown | 13–13 |
| ARI | Q4 7:12 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 13–13 |
| SF | Q4 5:40 | 8 | 32 | Missed field goal | 13–13 |
| ARI | Q4 2:25 | 8 | 43 | Missed field goal | 13–13 |
| ARI | OT | 9 | 32 | Field goal | 13–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 13/24 | 153 | 0 | 0 |
| Tim Rattay | 2/4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 4 | 44 | 11.0 | 1 |
| Garrison Hearst | 14 | 43 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 9 | 19 | 2.1 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 14/24 | 97 | 0 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel Shipp | 35 | 165 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Damien Anderson | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Bryan Gilmore | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
4.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.9%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.55
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-0.43