Closing spread
MIN -5.5
Total
49
Model margin
+1.0est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.065EPA / play+0.079
- 45.9%Success rate45.9%
- +0.126EPA / dropback+0.164
- +0.001EPA / rush-0.044
- 10.4%Explosive rate9.7%
- 41.0%Third-down rate46.9%
- 74.0%Red-zone TD rate62.7%
- 2.11Points / drive1.96
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.077EPA / play allowed-0.008
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | GB–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 66 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| MIN | Q1 11:14 | 5 | 76 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| GB | Q1 8:33 | 6 | 56 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| MIN | Q1 5:42 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 6–7 |
| GB | Q1 3:46 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 6–7 |
| MIN | Q1 1:51 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 6–7 |
| GB | Q1 0:41 | 7 | 82 | Touchdown | 13–7 |
| MIN | Q2 12:18 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 13–7 |
| GB | Q2 10:02 | 8 | 36 | Turnover | 13–7 |
| MIN | Q2 6:08 | 7 | 45 | Touchdown | 13–14 |
| GB | Q2 2:07 | 8 | 68 | Touchdown | 20–14 |
| MIN | Q2 0:21 | 1 | 1 | End of half | 20–14 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 48 | Field goal | 20–17 |
| GB | Q3 8:53 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 20–17 |
| MIN | Q3 7:35 | 9 | 39 | Field goal | 20–20 |
| GB | Q3 2:26 | 10 | 63 | Touchdown | 27–20 |
| MIN | Q4 13:14 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 27–20 |
| GB | Q4 9:17 | 11 | 71 | Field goal | 30–20 |
| MIN | Q4 2:37 | 11 | 60 | Touchdown | 30–27 |
| GB | Q4 0:33 | 2 | -2 | End of half | 30–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 18/28 | 194 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 21 | 137 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 45 | 45.0 | 0 |
| Najeh Davenport | 6 | 43 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Tony Fisher | 4 | 38 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 21/34 | 202 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moe Williams | 12 | 63 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 8 | 43 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
3.00%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.8%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.00
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.01