Closing spread
MIN -5.5
Total
49
Model margin
+1.0est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.065EPA / play+0.079
- 45.9%Success rate45.9%
- +0.126EPA / dropback+0.164
- +0.001EPA / rush-0.044
- 10.4%Explosive rate9.7%
- 41.0%Third-down rate46.9%
- 74.0%Red-zone TD rate62.7%
- 2.11Points / drive1.96
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.077EPA / play allowed-0.008
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 18/28 | 194 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 21 | 137 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 45 | 45.0 | 0 |
| Najeh Davenport | 6 | 43 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Tony Fisher | 4 | 38 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 21/34 | 202 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moe Williams | 12 | 63 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 8 | 43 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
3.00%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.8%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.00
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.01