Closing spread
MIA -3
Total
39.5
Model margin
-0.8est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.100EPA / play-0.093
- 46.3%Success rate39.3%
- +0.211EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.060EPA / rush-0.100
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.6%
- 42.2%Third-down rate33.0%
- 57.7%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 2.34Points / drive1.45
- 1.7%Turnover rate3.3%
- +0.000EPA / play allowed-0.116
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 11–8 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. MIA are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 23/37 | 266 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 26 | 89 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Troy Walters | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 18/29 | 231 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 13 | 36 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Travis Minor | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.9%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.89
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.39
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-0.80