Closing spread
MIA -3
Total
39.5
Model margin
-0.8est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.100EPA / play-0.093
- 46.3%Success rate39.3%
- +0.211EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.060EPA / rush-0.100
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.6%
- 42.2%Third-down rate33.0%
- 57.7%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 2.34Points / drive1.45
- 1.7%Turnover rate3.3%
- +0.000EPA / play allowed-0.116
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 11–8 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. MIA are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–MIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 13:56 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 13:01 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 11:15 | 4 | -8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 9:17 | 7 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 6:34 | 7 | 25 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 2:47 | 4 | 53 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| IND | Q1 0:41 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–7 |
| MIA | Q2 14:42 | 3 | 1 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| IND | Q2 13:19 | 4 | 14 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| MIA | Q2 11:11 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 3–7 |
| IND | Q2 9:05 | 13 | 65 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| MIA | Q2 2:20 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 6–7 |
| IND | Q2 1:35 | 6 | 74 | Field goal | 9–7 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 74 | Touchdown | 16–7 |
| MIA | Q3 9:18 | 4 | 69 | Touchdown | 16–14 |
| IND | Q3 7:27 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 16–14 |
| MIA | Q3 6:17 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 16–14 |
| IND | Q3 2:58 | 15 | 76 | Touchdown | 23–14 |
| MIA | Q4 9:40 | 4 | 24 | Punt | 23–14 |
| IND | Q4 8:05 | 5 | 20 | Turnover | 23–14 |
| MIA | Q4 6:02 | 7 | 50 | Field goal | 23–17 |
| IND | Q4 3:10 | 3 | 8 | Turnover | 23–17 |
| MIA | Q4 2:45 | 2 | -8 | Turnover | 23–17 |
| IND | Q4 1:55 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 23–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 23/37 | 266 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 26 | 89 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Troy Walters | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 18/29 | 231 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 13 | 36 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Travis Minor | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.9%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.89
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.39
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-0.80