Closing spread
BAL -7
Total
37.5
Model margin
+4.9est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.032EPA / play-0.093
- 41.2%Success rate38.5%
- -0.002EPA / dropback-0.112
- -0.070EPA / rush-0.074
- 8.9%Explosive rate9.7%
- 36.7%Third-down rate31.7%
- 52.7%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 1.46Points / drive1.53
- 2.7%Turnover rate3.5%
- -0.021EPA / play allowed-0.194
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 38.7 points. BAL are 7-7-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 22/34 | 208 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 22 | 78 | 3.5 | 0 |
| LaBrandon Toefield | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 10/23 | 156 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 21 | 68 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 2 | 33 | 16.5 | 1 |
| Kyle Boller | 6 | 4 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
4.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.1%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.32
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.88