2003 · Week 9 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
TB -8
Total
39
Model margin
+2.5est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.009EPA / play-0.043
- 42.3%Success rate41.6%
- +0.054EPA / dropback+0.014
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.134
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.3%
- 46.4%Third-down rate35.7%
- 59.5%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
- 1.71Points / drive1.38
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.018EPA / play allowed-0.116
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. TB are 24-27 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 40 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 8:27 | 5 | 10 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 4:59 | 5 | 41 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 3:10 | 5 | 33 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 0:21 | 7 | 33 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q2 11:54 | 3 | 2 | Turnover | 6–0 |
| NO | Q2 11:06 | 1 | 38 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| TB | Q2 10:57 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NO | Q2 9:50 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 7–0 |
| TB | Q2 8:26 | 6 | 39 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| NO | Q2 4:52 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–0 |
| TB | Q2 3:42 | 9 | 37 | Missed field goal | 7–0 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–0 |
| TB | Q3 12:42 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NO | Q3 11:40 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 7–0 |
| TB | Q3 9:54 | 8 | 25 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| NO | Q3 5:47 | 9 | 35 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| TB | Q3 1:21 | 3 | 2 | Opp touchdown | 14–0 |
| TB | Q3 0:07 | 6 | 34 | Turnover on downs | 14–0 |
| NO | Q4 12:27 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 14–0 |
| TB | Q4 11:21 | 10 | 92 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| NO | Q4 7:59 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 14–7 |
| NO | Q4 6:04 | 3 | 6 | Missed field goal | 14–7 |
| TB | Q4 3:53 | 7 | 71 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| NO | Q4 2:08 | 7 | 43 | Field goal | 17–14 |
| TB | Q4 0:08 | 1 | 8 | Turnover | 17–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 13/29 | 142 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 26 | 110 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Ki-Jana Carter | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 27/46 | 333 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 16 | 48 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.04
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.52