Closing spread
NYG -11.5
Total
41
Model margin
+2.6est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.116EPA / play-0.123
- 39.2%Success rate41.7%
- -0.213EPA / dropback-0.087
- +0.020EPA / rush-0.188
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.0%
- 29.8%Third-down rate32.9%
- 53.9%Red-zone TD rate39.7%
- 1.36Points / drive0.93
- 2.7%Turnover rate3.3%
- +0.030EPA / play allowed+0.013
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 8–6 since 1999
ATL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 37.1 points. NYG are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Kittner | 9/23 | 65 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 25 | 178 | 7.1 | 1 |
| T.J. Duckett | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 2 |
| Kurt Kittner | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 25/40 | 202 | 0 | 2 |
| Jesse Palmer | 2/4 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 16 | 120 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Delvin Joyce | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
1.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.1%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.93
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.97
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.60