Closing spread
PK
Total
37.5
Model margin
-1.5est.
DET perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Lions
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.100EPA / play-0.156
- 38.3%Success rate36.7%
- -0.156EPA / dropback-0.144
- -0.016EPA / rush-0.178
- 7.4%Explosive rate5.6%
- 33.9%Third-down rate34.9%
- 54.5%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
- 1.44Points / drive1.04
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.013EPA / play allowed-0.013
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CHI–DET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 13:38 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 12:42 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 11:21 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 9:41 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 8:03 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 5:48 | 7 | 39 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| CHI | Q1 1:53 | 11 | 54 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| DET | Q2 11:28 | 4 | 8 | Turnover on downs | 3–3 |
| CHI | Q2 10:04 | 4 | 17 | Missed field goal | 3–3 |
| DET | Q2 7:46 | 10 | 55 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| CHI | Q2 2:40 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 3–6 |
| DET | Q2 1:03 | 2 | 9 | End of half | 3–6 |
| CHI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–6 |
| DET | Q3 13:21 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 3–6 |
| CHI | Q3 11:47 | 8 | 50 | Touchdown | 10–6 |
| DET | Q3 7:52 | 9 | 49 | Field goal | 10–9 |
| CHI | Q3 2:49 | 11 | 27 | Missed field goal | 10–9 |
| DET | Q4 12:03 | 6 | 29 | Punt | 10–9 |
| CHI | Q4 7:46 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 10–9 |
| DET | Q4 5:07 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–9 |
| CHI | Q4 4:05 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–9 |
| DET | Q4 2:27 | 6 | 35 | Field goal | 10–12 |
| CHI | Q4 0:39 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 10–12 |
| DET | Q4 0:27 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–12 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 16/28 | 149 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 21 | 61 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Rabih Abdullah | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Chris Chandler | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 24/38 | 238 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Swinton | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 10 | 8 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Avon Cobourne | 6 | 4 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.0%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.77
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.29
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.50