2003 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Chris Chandler

10·12

Lions

Detroit

QB Joey Harrington

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

PK

Total

37.5

Model margin

-1.5est.

DET perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapLions
  • -0.100EPA / play-0.156
  • 38.3%Success rate36.7%
  • -0.156EPA / dropback-0.144
  • -0.016EPA / rush-0.178
  • 7.4%Explosive rate5.6%
  • 33.9%Third-down rate34.9%
  • 54.5%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
  • 1.44Points / drive1.04
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.6%
  • -0.013EPA / play allowed-0.013

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 28–26 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18DET @ CHI19–16DET
2025 · W2CHI @ DET21–52DET
2024 · W16DET @ CHI34–17DET
2024 · W13CHI @ DET20–23DET
2023 · W14DET @ CHI13–28CHI
2023 · W11CHI @ DET26–31DET
2022 · W17CHI @ DET10–41DET
2022 · W10DET @ CHI31–30DET

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chris Chandler16/2814911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Anthony Thomas21612.90
Rabih Abdullah231.50
Chris Chandler122.00

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joey Harrington24/3823800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Reggie Swinton199.00
Shawn Bryson1080.80
Avon Cobourne640.70
Olandis Gary1-2-2.00
Joey Harrington2-2-1.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line 02.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

1.86%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.0%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.77
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.29
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.50