Closing spread
KC -9
Total
43.5
Model margin
+6.0est.
KC perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.100EPA / play+0.124
- 43.0%Success rate47.9%
- -0.069EPA / dropback+0.163
- -0.144EPA / rush+0.069
- 6.8%Explosive rate10.6%
- 37.1%Third-down rate42.4%
- 47.9%Red-zone TD rate79.8%
- 1.31Points / drive2.38
- 3.1%Turnover rate1.6%
- -0.010EPA / play allowed-0.012
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 9–3 since 1999
KC have won 6 straight. Meetings average 49.8 points. KC are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CLE–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -13 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q1 14:15 | 4 | 19 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| KC | Q1 11:31 | 10 | 48 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| CLE | Q1 5:05 | 2 | 21 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| KC | Q1 4:05 | 7 | 52 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| CLE | Q1 0:19 | 10 | 26 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| KC | Q2 11:53 | 7 | 62 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| CLE | Q2 9:11 | 5 | 27 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| CLE | Q2 5:38 | 2 | 2 | Touchdown | 17–21 |
| KC | Q2 4:54 | 3 | 5 | Field goal | 17–24 |
| CLE | Q2 3:13 | 4 | 23 | Punt | 17–24 |
| KC | Q2 1:38 | 10 | 59 | Field goal | 17–27 |
| CLE | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 17–27 |
| KC | Q3 12:07 | 10 | 88 | Touchdown | 17–34 |
| CLE | Q3 7:16 | 11 | 58 | Field goal | 20–34 |
| KC | Q3 0:41 | 6 | 42 | Turnover | 20–34 |
| CLE | Q4 12:33 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 20–34 |
| KC | Q4 10:41 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 20–34 |
| CLE | Q4 8:28 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 20–34 |
| KC | Q4 7:25 | 12 | 76 | Touchdown | 20–41 |
| CLE | Q4 2:19 | 6 | -1 | Turnover | 20–41 |
| KC | Q4 0:55 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–41 |
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Holcomb | 19/27 | 149 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Jackson | 17 | 66 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Jamel White | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kelly Holcomb | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 29/42 | 368 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 19 | 92 | 4.8 | 2 |
| Larry Johnson | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Todd Collins | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Dante Hall | 2 | -8 | -4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.9%
Expected total
46.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.43
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.99