Closing spread
IND -6
Total
44
Model margin
+1.3est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.100EPA / play-0.032
- 46.3%Success rate41.2%
- +0.211EPA / dropback-0.002
- -0.060EPA / rush-0.070
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.9%
- 42.2%Third-down rate36.7%
- 57.7%Red-zone TD rate52.7%
- 2.34Points / drive1.46
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.7%
- +0.000EPA / play allowed-0.021
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–22 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. JAX are 31-17-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 28/45 | 347 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 15 | 44 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 6 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 12/22 | 179 | 1 | 0 |
| LaBrandon Toefield | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 28 | 152 | 5.4 | 2 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 1 |
| LaBrandon Toefield | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.27
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.29