Closing spread
IND -6
Total
44
Model margin
+1.3est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.100EPA / play-0.032
- 46.3%Success rate41.2%
- +0.211EPA / dropback-0.002
- -0.060EPA / rush-0.070
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.9%
- 42.2%Third-down rate36.7%
- 57.7%Red-zone TD rate52.7%
- 2.34Points / drive1.46
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.7%
- +0.000EPA / play allowed-0.021
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–23 since 1999
JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.4 points. JAX are 32-17-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 16 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 12:38 | 7 | 47 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q1 10:07 | 9 | 27 | Punt | 7–0 |
| IND | Q1 7:06 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q1 5:25 | 7 | 38 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| IND | Q1 1:19 | 12 | 41 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| JAX | Q2 11:08 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–7 |
| IND | Q2 9:13 | 5 | 57 | Field goal | 13–7 |
| JAX | Q2 6:51 | 5 | 10 | Punt | 13–7 |
| IND | Q2 4:49 | 12 | 57 | Touchdown | 20–7 |
| JAX | Q2 0:28 | 1 | 5 | End of half | 20–7 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 13 | 85 | Touchdown | 20–14 |
| IND | Q3 8:26 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 20–14 |
| JAX | Q3 6:55 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 20–14 |
| IND | Q3 5:27 | 9 | 61 | Punt | 20–14 |
| JAX | Q3 0:31 | 8 | 87 | Touchdown | 20–21 |
| IND | Q4 11:32 | 5 | 75 | Field goal | 23–21 |
| JAX | Q4 9:44 | 13 | 58 | Turnover | 23–21 |
| IND | Q4 2:09 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 23–21 |
| JAX | Q4 1:28 | 2 | 31 | Touchdown | 23–28 |
| IND | Q4 1:08 | 5 | 28 | Turnover | 23–28 |
| JAX | Q4 0:11 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 23–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 28/45 | 347 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 15 | 44 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 6 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 12/22 | 179 | 1 | 0 |
| LaBrandon Toefield | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 28 | 152 | 5.4 | 2 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 1 |
| LaBrandon Toefield | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.27
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.29