Closing spread
NO -9
Total
44
Model margin
+6.0est.
NO perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Saints
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.116EPA / play-0.009
- 39.2%Success rate42.3%
- -0.213EPA / dropback+0.054
- +0.020EPA / rush-0.106
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.5%
- 29.8%Third-down rate46.4%
- 53.9%Red-zone TD rate59.5%
- 1.36Points / drive1.71
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.030EPA / play allowed-0.018
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–23 since 1999
ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. NO are 30-25 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ATL–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 13:25 | 8 | 16 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 10:25 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 7:35 | 3 | 2 | Opp touchdown | 7–0 |
| NO | Q1 6:38 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–0 |
| ATL | Q1 4:52 | 8 | 46 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| NO | Q1 0:47 | 4 | 1 | Punt | 10–0 |
| ATL | Q2 14:17 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 10–0 |
| NO | Q2 13:50 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 10–0 |
| ATL | Q2 13:38 | 2 | 5 | Touchdown | 17–0 |
| NO | Q2 12:52 | 15 | 75 | Field goal | 17–3 |
| ATL | Q2 4:07 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 17–3 |
| NO | Q2 2:58 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 17–3 |
| ATL | Q2 1:40 | 7 | 36 | Field goal | 20–3 |
| NO | Q2 0:07 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–3 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 20–3 |
| ATL | Q3 12:43 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 20–3 |
| NO | Q3 11:04 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 20–3 |
| ATL | Q3 8:31 | 2 | -3 | Turnover | 20–3 |
| NO | Q3 7:38 | 3 | 16 | Touchdown | 20–10 |
| ATL | Q3 6:13 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 20–10 |
| NO | Q3 4:02 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 20–10 |
| ATL | Q3 2:20 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 20–10 |
| NO | Q3 0:57 | 10 | 47 | Touchdown | 20–17 |
| ATL | Q4 12:22 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 20–17 |
| NO | Q4 10:54 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 20–17 |
| ATL | Q4 8:19 | 6 | 68 | Turnover | 20–17 |
| NO | Q4 6:04 | 9 | 74 | Turnover | 20–17 |
| NO | Q4 1:51 | 1 | 5 | Field goal | 20–17 |
| NO | Q4 1:14 | 1 | 6 | Field goal | 20–17 |
| NO | Q4 0:28 | 2 | -2 | Field goal | 20–20 |
| ATL | Q4 0:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–20 |
| NO | OT | 2 | 60 | Turnover | 20–20 |
| ATL | OT | 4 | 43 | Missed field goal | 20–20 |
| NO | OT | 2 | 37 | Field goal | 20–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Kittner | 8/27 | 80 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 23 | 162 | 7.0 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Kurt Kittner | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 21/37 | 228 | 0 | 2 |
| Deuce McAllister | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 28 | 173 | 6.2 | 2 |
| Aaron Brooks | 8 | 37 | 4.6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
1.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.0%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.96
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.97
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+6.05