Closing spread
NO -9
Total
44
Model margin
+6.0est.
NO perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Saints
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.116EPA / play-0.009
- 39.2%Success rate42.3%
- -0.213EPA / dropback+0.054
- +0.020EPA / rush-0.106
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.5%
- 29.8%Third-down rate46.4%
- 53.9%Red-zone TD rate59.5%
- 1.36Points / drive1.71
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.030EPA / play allowed-0.018
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. NO are 30-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Kittner | 8/27 | 80 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 23 | 162 | 7.0 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Kurt Kittner | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 21/37 | 228 | 0 | 2 |
| Deuce McAllister | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 28 | 173 | 6.2 | 2 |
| Aaron Brooks | 8 | 37 | 4.6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
1.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.0%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.96
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.97
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+6.05