2003 · Week 11

Final / OT

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Anthony Wright

6·9

Dolphins

Miami

QB Brian Griese

Pro Player Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

MIA -5

Total

33

Model margin

-3.2est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

1.7%est.

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapDolphins
  • -0.093EPA / play-0.093
  • 38.5%Success rate39.3%
  • -0.112EPA / dropback-0.086
  • -0.074EPA / rush-0.100
  • 9.7%Explosive rate8.6%
  • 31.7%Third-down rate33.0%
  • 53.9%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
  • 1.53Points / drive1.45
  • 3.5%Turnover rate3.3%
  • -0.194EPA / play allowed-0.116

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 12–7 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. MIA are 6-13 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9BAL @ MIA28–6BAL
2023 · W17MIA @ BAL19–56BAL
2022 · W2MIA @ BAL42–38MIA
2021 · W10BAL @ MIA10–22MIA
2019 · W1BAL @ MIA59–10BAL
2017 · W8MIA @ BAL0–40BAL
2016 · W13MIA @ BAL6–38BAL
2015 · W13BAL @ MIA13–15MIA

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Anthony Wright14/2511202

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis26883.40
Chester Taylor4194.80
Anthony Wright2115.50

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Griese13/3212601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Williams361052.90
Travis Minor5306.00
Brian Griese166.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.8%3.9%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

1.67%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

40.6%

Expected total

41.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.94
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.80
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.18