Closing spread
MIA -5
Total
33
Model margin
-3.2est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
1.7%est.
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.093EPA / play-0.093
- 38.5%Success rate39.3%
- -0.112EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.074EPA / rush-0.100
- 9.7%Explosive rate8.6%
- 31.7%Third-down rate33.0%
- 53.9%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 1.53Points / drive1.45
- 3.5%Turnover rate3.3%
- -0.194EPA / play allowed-0.116
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 12–7 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. MIA are 6-13 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BAL–MIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 49 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 8:17 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 5:55 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 4:21 | 10 | 34 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q2 14:45 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q2 14:31 | 6 | 18 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| BAL | Q2 11:12 | 3 | -1 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| MIA | Q2 10:10 | 7 | 33 | Punt | 3–3 |
| BAL | Q2 5:09 | 11 | 42 | Punt | 3–3 |
| MIA | Q2 0:21 | 2 | 26 | End of half | 3–3 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 38 | Punt | 3–3 |
| BAL | Q3 11:32 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–3 |
| MIA | Q3 9:20 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 3–3 |
| BAL | Q3 8:28 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–3 |
| MIA | Q3 7:13 | 8 | 19 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| BAL | Q3 3:07 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 3–6 |
| MIA | Q3 0:54 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 3–6 |
| BAL | Q4 14:52 | 12 | 75 | Field goal | 6–6 |
| MIA | Q4 7:42 | 6 | 8 | Turnover | 6–6 |
| BAL | Q4 5:46 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 6–6 |
| MIA | Q4 5:00 | 7 | 23 | Missed field goal | 6–6 |
| BAL | Q4 2:29 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 6–6 |
| MIA | Q4 0:51 | 2 | 9 | End of half | 6–6 |
| MIA | OT | 6 | 35 | Punt | 6–6 |
| BAL | OT | 4 | 8 | Turnover | 6–6 |
| MIA | OT | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 6–9 |
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Wright | 14/25 | 112 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 26 | 88 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Anthony Wright | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 13/32 | 126 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 36 | 105 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Travis Minor | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
1.67%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.6%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.94
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.80
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.18