Closing spread
SEA -11
Total
39.5
Model margin
+5.8est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.156EPA / play+0.070
- 36.7%Success rate46.1%
- -0.144EPA / dropback+0.148
- -0.178EPA / rush-0.039
- 5.6%Explosive rate10.5%
- 34.9%Third-down rate46.8%
- 47.3%Red-zone TD rate68.2%
- 1.04Points / drive1.98
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.013EPA / play allowed-0.012
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 9–3 since 1999
Meetings average 52.1 points. SEA are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 26/48 | 285 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olandis Gary | 6 | 43 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 8 | 35 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 21/28 | 207 | 1 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 20 | 110 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Maurice Morris | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Kerry Carter | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.59%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.4%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.22
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.78