Closing spread
PHI -3
Total
38
Model margin
+6.7est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.123EPA / play+0.047
- 41.7%Success rate43.4%
- -0.087EPA / dropback+0.064
- -0.188EPA / rush+0.019
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.3%
- 32.9%Third-down rate36.1%
- 39.7%Red-zone TD rate65.8%
- 0.93Points / drive1.99
- 3.3%Turnover rate1.9%
- +0.013EPA / play allowed-0.031
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 25/44 | 268 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 19 | 111 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 24/30 | 314 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 9 | 48 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Duce Staley | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 1 |
| Donovan McNabb | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
7.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.7%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.24
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+6.73