2003 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Kerry Collins

10·28

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

PHI -3

Total

38

Model margin

+6.7est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapEagles
  • -0.123EPA / play+0.047
  • 41.7%Success rate43.4%
  • -0.087EPA / dropback+0.064
  • -0.188EPA / rush+0.019
  • 8.0%Explosive rate9.3%
  • 32.9%Third-down rate36.1%
  • 39.7%Red-zone TD rate65.8%
  • 0.93Points / drive1.99
  • 3.3%Turnover rate1.9%
  • +0.013EPA / play allowed-0.031

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 38–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8NYG @ PHI20–38PHI
2025 · W6PHI @ NYG17–34NYG
2024 · W18NYG @ PHI13–20PHI
2024 · W7PHI @ NYG28–3PHI
2023 · W18PHI @ NYG10–27NYG
2023 · W16NYG @ PHI25–33PHI
2022 · playoffsNYG @ PHI7–38PHI
2022 · W18NYG @ PHI16–22PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–PHI
PHIQ1 15:0000Field goal0–0
NYGQ1 14:5810Field goal0–0
NYGQ1 14:3313Field goal0–0
NYGQ1 13:50221Field goal3–0
PHIQ1 12:41420Punt3–0
NYGQ1 10:2332Punt3–0
PHIQ1 9:32961Touchdown3–7
NYGQ1 4:2731Punt3–7
PHIQ1 3:22854Punt3–7
NYGQ2 13:591057Punt3–7
PHIQ2 8:09624Punt3–7
NYGQ2 6:1432Punt3–7
PHIQ2 5:12373Touchdown3–14
NYGQ2 3:361193Turnover on downs3–14
PHIQ2 0:3900End of half3–14
NYGQ3 15:001651Punt3–14
PHIQ3 7:52895Touchdown3–21
NYGQ3 3:211179Touchdown10–21
PHIQ4 12:54418Punt10–21
NYGQ4 9:523-3Punt10–21
PHIQ4 8:28632Touchdown10–28
NYGQ4 5:26925Turnover on downs10–28
PHIQ4 2:3831Punt10–28
NYGQ4 1:40330Turnover10–28
PHIQ4 0:4400End of half10–28

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins25/4426811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tiki Barber191115.80
Dorsey Levens410.30
Kerry Collins1-3-3.00

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb24/3031420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Westbrook9485.31
Duce Staley3124.00
Correll Buckhalter520.41
Donovan McNabb400.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.1%6.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%2.5%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

7.28%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.7%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.24
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+6.73