Closing spread
IND -6
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
IND perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.013EPA / play+0.100
- 41.4%Success rate46.3%
- +0.040EPA / dropback+0.211
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.060
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.2%
- 40.0%Third-down rate42.2%
- 51.3%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
- 1.47Points / drive2.34
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%
- +0.022EPA / play allowed+0.000
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 11–8 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48.4 points. IND are 9-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 11/14 | 219 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 13 | 105 | 8.1 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 27/36 | 401 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 36 | 127 | 3.5 | 3 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
3.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.1%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.19
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.76