2003 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Chargers

San Diego

QB Doug Flutie

8·37

Broncos

Denver

QB Jake Plummer

Invesco Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

DEN -8.5

Total

44

Model margin

+3.5est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

DEN lead 33–23 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-25-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5DEN @ LAC23–17DEN
2025 · W18LAC @ DEN3–19DEN
2025 · W3DEN @ LAC20–23CHARGERS
2024 · W16DEN @ LAC27–34CHARGERS
2024 · W6LAC @ DEN23–16CHARGERS
2023 · W17LAC @ DEN9–16DEN
2023 · W14DEN @ LAC24–7DEN
2022 · W18LAC @ DEN28–31DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSD–DEN
LACQ1 15:0020Turnover0–0
DENQ1 14:4649Turnover on downs0–0
LACQ1 13:2310Turnover0–0
DENQ1 13:1710Touchdown0–6
DENQ1 13:11111Touchdown0–7
DENQ1 13:0600Touchdown0–7
LACQ1 13:0631Punt0–7
DENQ1 11:211346Field goal0–10
LACQ1 6:14617Punt0–10
DENQ1 2:591496Field goal0–13
LACQ2 9:463-2Opp touchdown0–20
LACQ2 8:2534Punt0–20
DENQ2 6:131-6Turnover0–20
LACQ2 6:0610Turnover0–20
DENQ2 5:55863Missed field goal0–20
LACQ2 1:4730Punt0–20
DENQ2 1:22540Touchdown0–27
LACQ2 0:3200End of half0–27
DENQ3 15:001445Turnover0–27
LACQ3 7:4534Punt0–27
DENQ3 6:12978Touchdown0–34
LACQ3 1:283-1Turnover0–34
DENQ3 1:00622Field goal0–37
LACQ4 13:11867Touchdown8–37
DENQ4 10:1238Turnover8–37
LACQ4 8:4038Punt8–37
DENQ4 7:52940End of half8–37

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Plummer23/3425331
Danny Kanell0/1001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clinton Portis251064.20
Quentin Griffin15553.70
Ashley Lelie22010.00
Jake Plummer2147.00
Adrian Madise11010.00
Danny Kanell4-4-1.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.56.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

1.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.5%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.49
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.48
  • Expected margin+3.53

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.