Closing spread
DEN -8.5
Total
44
Model margin
+3.5est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. DEN are 25-25-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 23/34 | 253 | 3 | 1 |
| Danny Kanell | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 25 | 106 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Quentin Griffin | 15 | 55 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Ashley Lelie | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Adrian Madise | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Danny Kanell | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.5%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.49
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+3.53
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.