2003 · Week 11

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Patrick Ramsey

17·20

Panthers

Carolina

QB Jake Delhomme

Ericsson Stadium · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

CAR -6

Total

37

Model margin

+5.2est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapPanthers
  • -0.061EPA / play-0.070
  • 40.4%Success rate39.3%
  • -0.070EPA / dropback-0.010
  • -0.048EPA / rush-0.132
  • 7.6%Explosive rate10.2%
  • 34.4%Third-down rate35.8%
  • 60.1%Red-zone TD rate54.6%
  • 1.45Points / drive1.35
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.8%
  • +0.048EPA / play allowed-0.075

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 8–7 since 1999

WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. CAR are 7-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W7CAR @ WAS7–40WAS
2021 · W11WAS @ CAR27–21WAS
2020 · W16CAR @ WAS20–13CAR
2019 · W13WAS @ CAR29–21WAS
2018 · W6CAR @ WAS17–23WAS
2016 · W15CAR @ WAS26–15CAR
2015 · W11WAS @ CAR16–44CAR
2012 · W9CAR @ WAS21–13CAR

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Ramsey16/3515021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rock Cartwright9323.60
Trung Canidate10181.80
Patrick Ramsey242.00
Laveranues Coles100.00

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Delhomme20/3031702

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stephen Davis28923.31
Nick Goings22010.00
DeShaun Foster122.00
Jake Delhomme3-2-0.71
Steve Smith1-2-2.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.4%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

3.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.9%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.66
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.22