Closing spread
DAL -3
Total
33
Model margin
+1.9est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.070EPA / play-0.085
- 39.3%Success rate39.6%
- -0.010EPA / dropback-0.053
- -0.132EPA / rush-0.123
- 10.2%Explosive rate9.1%
- 35.8%Third-down rate36.8%
- 54.6%Red-zone TD rate50.3%
- 1.35Points / drive1.23
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.075EPA / play allowed-0.125
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 11–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40.3 points. DAL are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–DAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Q1 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 14:55 | 5 | 3 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| CAR | Q1 12:34 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 0–3 |
| DAL | Q1 10:22 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–3 |
| CAR | Q1 8:09 | 5 | 20 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| DAL | Q1 4:47 | 6 | 51 | Touchdown | 3–10 |
| CAR | Q1 1:50 | 4 | -3 | Punt | 3–10 |
| DAL | Q2 14:17 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–10 |
| CAR | Q2 13:38 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–10 |
| DAL | Q2 11:46 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 3–10 |
| CAR | Q2 8:27 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–10 |
| DAL | Q2 7:28 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 3–10 |
| CAR | Q2 4:31 | 6 | 37 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| DAL | Q2 2:09 | 5 | 29 | Punt | 10–10 |
| CAR | Q2 1:00 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 10–10 |
| DAL | Q2 0:03 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 10–10 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 10–10 |
| CAR | Q3 11:46 | 5 | 10 | Turnover | 10–10 |
| DAL | Q3 10:09 | 2 | 11 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| CAR | Q3 9:26 | 5 | 49 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| DAL | Q3 7:27 | 6 | 63 | Touchdown | 17–24 |
| CAR | Q3 4:15 | 8 | 31 | Turnover on downs | 17–24 |
| DAL | Q3 0:45 | 6 | 27 | Missed field goal | 17–24 |
| CAR | Q4 13:19 | 5 | 27 | Missed field goal | 17–24 |
| DAL | Q4 11:05 | 10 | 54 | Missed field goal | 17–24 |
| CAR | Q4 6:03 | 7 | 47 | Field goal | 20–24 |
| DAL | Q4 3:47 | 9 | 21 | End of half | 20–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 9/24 | 175 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 26 | 59 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Carter | 29/44 | 254 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Hambrick | 12 | 26 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Aveion Cason | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Quincy Carter | 6 | 5 | 0.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
41.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.69
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.87