Closing spread
MIN -10.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+5.8est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.156EPA / play+0.079
- 36.7%Success rate45.9%
- -0.144EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.178EPA / rush-0.044
- 5.6%Explosive rate9.7%
- 34.9%Third-down rate46.9%
- 47.3%Red-zone TD rate62.7%
- 1.04Points / drive1.96
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.013EPA / play allowed-0.008
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. MIN are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 21/41 | 167 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 2 | 34 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 10 | 19 | 1.9 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 20/30 | 196 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bennett | 15 | 73 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 7 | 41 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Kelly Campbell | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.59%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.3%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.20
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.76