Closing spread
PHI -5.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.009EPA / play+0.047
- 42.3%Success rate43.4%
- +0.054EPA / dropback+0.064
- -0.106EPA / rush+0.019
- 7.5%Explosive rate9.3%
- 46.4%Third-down rate36.1%
- 59.5%Red-zone TD rate65.8%
- 1.71Points / drive1.99
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.018EPA / play allowed-0.031
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 48.1 points. PHI are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 24/39 | 287 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 19 | 184 | 9.7 | 2 |
| Ki-Jana Carter | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 16/25 | 259 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 8 | 77 | 9.6 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 7 | 54 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 9 | 52 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 1 |
| James Thrash | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
3.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.5%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.36
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.92