Closing spread
PHI -5.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.009EPA / play+0.047
- 42.3%Success rate43.4%
- +0.054EPA / dropback+0.064
- -0.106EPA / rush+0.019
- 7.5%Explosive rate9.3%
- 46.4%Third-down rate36.1%
- 59.5%Red-zone TD rate65.8%
- 1.71Points / drive1.99
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.018EPA / play allowed-0.031
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 48.1 points. PHI are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–PHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 67 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| NO | Q1 12:09 | 8 | 93 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| PHI | Q1 7:39 | 7 | 75 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| NO | Q1 4:25 | 11 | 39 | Turnover on downs | 0–10 |
| PHI | Q2 14:11 | 8 | 32 | Punt | 0–10 |
| NO | Q2 10:18 | 8 | 30 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| PHI | Q2 5:24 | 5 | 50 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| NO | Q2 2:38 | 4 | 41 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| PHI | Q2 1:47 | 7 | 52 | Field goal | 7–20 |
| NO | Q2 0:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–20 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 7 | Turnover | 7–20 |
| PHI | Q3 14:42 | 3 | -2 | Field goal | 7–23 |
| NO | Q3 13:16 | 2 | 76 | Touchdown | 14–23 |
| PHI | Q3 12:58 | 9 | 53 | Punt | 14–23 |
| NO | Q3 7:31 | 11 | 61 | Missed field goal | 14–23 |
| PHI | Q3 0:40 | 11 | 86 | Field goal | 14–26 |
| NO | Q4 10:01 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 14–26 |
| PHI | Q4 7:46 | 5 | 27 | Touchdown | 14–33 |
| NO | Q4 5:28 | 6 | 49 | Touchdown | 20–33 |
| PHI | Q4 3:39 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 20–33 |
| NO | Q4 2:58 | 11 | 52 | Turnover on downs | 20–33 |
| PHI | Q4 1:07 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–33 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 24/39 | 287 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 19 | 184 | 9.7 | 2 |
| Ki-Jana Carter | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 16/25 | 259 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 8 | 77 | 9.6 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 7 | 54 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 9 | 52 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 1 |
| James Thrash | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
3.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.5%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.36
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.92