2003 · Week 12

Final

Giants

New York

QB Kerry Collins

13·19

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Brad Johnson

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

TB -6

Total

38

Model margin

+5.4est.

TB perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.123EPA / play-0.043
  • 41.7%Success rate41.6%
  • -0.087EPA / dropback+0.014
  • -0.188EPA / rush-0.134
  • 8.0%Explosive rate7.3%
  • 32.9%Third-down rate35.7%
  • 39.7%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
  • 0.93Points / drive1.38
  • 3.3%Turnover rate2.8%
  • +0.013EPA / play allowed-0.116

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 8–5 since 1999

TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. TB are 3-8-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W12TB @ NYG30–7TB
2021 · W11NYG @ TB10–30TB
2020 · W8TB @ NYG25–23TB
2019 · W3NYG @ TB32–31NYG
2018 · W11TB @ NYG35–38NYG
2017 · W4NYG @ TB23–25TB
2015 · W9NYG @ TB32–18NYG
2012 · W2TB @ NYG34–41NYG

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins18/3416002

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tiki Barber13554.20
Kerry Collins22211.00
Dorsey Levens122.00

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brad Johnson22/3226911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Pittman19552.90
Thomas Jones10272.71
Aaron Stecker4153.80
Brad Johnson5-4-0.80

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

3.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.4%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.84
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.41