2003 · Week 12
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
TB -6
Total
38
Model margin
+5.4est.
TB perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.123EPA / play-0.043
- 41.7%Success rate41.6%
- -0.087EPA / dropback+0.014
- -0.188EPA / rush-0.134
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.3%
- 32.9%Third-down rate35.7%
- 39.7%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
- 0.93Points / drive1.38
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.8%
- +0.013EPA / play allowed-0.116
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 8–5 since 1999
TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. TB are 3-8-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYG–TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYG | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 12:09 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 9:29 | 6 | 31 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 6:33 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 3:50 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 1:32 | 12 | 19 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NYG | Q2 11:21 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–7 |
| TB | Q2 9:53 | 2 | 15 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| NYG | Q2 9:38 | 7 | 53 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| TB | Q2 6:37 | 7 | 83 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| NYG | Q2 3:37 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–14 |
| TB | Q2 2:37 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–14 |
| NYG | Q2 1:39 | 7 | 33 | Turnover | 3–14 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 35 | Turnover | 3–14 |
| NYG | Q3 12:51 | 7 | 39 | Field goal | 6–14 |
| TB | Q3 9:22 | 9 | 71 | Field goal | 6–17 |
| NYG | Q3 3:45 | 3 | 23 | Turnover | 6–17 |
| TB | Q3 2:11 | 8 | 37 | Opp touchdown | 13–17 |
| TB | Q4 12:42 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 13–17 |
| NYG | Q4 9:26 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 13–17 |
| TB | Q4 7:44 | 8 | 31 | Punt | 13–17 |
| NYG | Q4 3:43 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 13–17 |
| TB | Q4 3:30 | 5 | 20 | Turnover on downs | 13–17 |
| NYG | Q4 2:15 | 4 | -9 | Safety | 13–19 |
| TB | Q4 1:57 | 3 | -4 | End of half | 13–19 |
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 18/34 | 160 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 13 | 55 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 22/32 | 269 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 19 | 55 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 10 | 27 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Aaron Stecker | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 5 | -4 | -0.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.4%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.84
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.41