Closing spread
CLE -3
Total
40.5
Model margin
+0.6est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.084EPA / play-0.100
- 41.6%Success rate43.0%
- -0.022EPA / dropback-0.069
- -0.170EPA / rush-0.144
- 7.5%Explosive rate6.8%
- 36.1%Third-down rate37.1%
- 54.7%Red-zone TD rate47.9%
- 1.33Points / drive1.31
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.051EPA / play allowed-0.010
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 43–14–1 since 1999
Meetings average 39 points. CLE are 26-30-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–CLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q1 13:43 | 8 | 44 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| PIT | Q1 8:44 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–3 |
| CLE | Q1 6:25 | 4 | 22 | Punt | 0–3 |
| PIT | Q1 4:16 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–3 |
| CLE | Q1 3:49 | 8 | 36 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| PIT | Q2 14:50 | 9 | 30 | Punt | 0–6 |
| CLE | Q2 11:24 | 5 | 11 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| PIT | Q2 9:32 | 6 | 15 | Touchdown | 7–6 |
| CLE | Q2 6:28 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 7–6 |
| PIT | Q2 5:13 | 4 | 13 | Missed field goal | 7–6 |
| CLE | Q2 4:30 | 1 | -12 | Turnover | 7–6 |
| PIT | Q2 4:23 | 6 | 18 | Field goal | 10–6 |
| CLE | Q2 2:09 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–6 |
| PIT | Q2 1:24 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 10–6 |
| CLE | Q2 0:18 | 3 | 7 | End of half | 10–6 |
| CLE | Q3 15:00 | 18 | 81 | Turnover on downs | 10–6 |
| PIT | Q3 6:36 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–6 |
| CLE | Q3 5:02 | 6 | 34 | Turnover | 10–6 |
| PIT | Q3 2:27 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–6 |
| CLE | Q3 0:55 | 5 | 42 | Turnover | 10–6 |
| PIT | Q4 13:32 | 8 | 47 | Field goal | 13–6 |
| CLE | Q4 8:36 | 5 | 5 | Punt | 13–6 |
| PIT | Q4 6:13 | 5 | 27 | Punt | 13–6 |
| CLE | Q4 3:05 | 8 | 31 | Turnover | 13–6 |
| PIT | Q4 1:41 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 13–6 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Maddox | 9/24 | 73 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 24 | 93 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Holcomb | 25/44 | 234 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Jackson | 25 | 94 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 1 | -12 | -12.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.6%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.07
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.57