Closing spread
CLE -3
Total
40.5
Model margin
+0.6est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.084EPA / play-0.100
- 41.6%Success rate43.0%
- -0.022EPA / dropback-0.069
- -0.170EPA / rush-0.144
- 7.5%Explosive rate6.8%
- 36.1%Third-down rate37.1%
- 54.7%Red-zone TD rate47.9%
- 1.33Points / drive1.31
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.051EPA / play allowed-0.010
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. CLE are 25-29-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Maddox | 9/24 | 73 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 24 | 93 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Holcomb | 25/44 | 234 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Jackson | 25 | 94 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 1 | -12 | -12.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.6%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.07
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.57