Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
42
Model margin
+2.1est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. OAK are 29-23-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 11 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 11:17 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 9:50 | 3 | 8 | Safety | 0–2 |
| LV | Q1 7:49 | 7 | 34 | Field goal | 0–5 |
| DEN | Q1 4:36 | 15 | 53 | Touchdown | 7–5 |
| LV | Q2 11:00 | 4 | 47 | Field goal | 7–8 |
| DEN | Q2 9:03 | 9 | 55 | Touchdown | 14–8 |
| LV | Q2 4:24 | 8 | 55 | Punt | 14–8 |
| DEN | Q2 1:23 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 14–8 |
| LV | Q2 0:11 | 2 | 0 | End of half | 14–8 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 20 | Turnover | 14–8 |
| DEN | Q3 13:33 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 14–8 |
| LV | Q3 12:36 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 14–8 |
| DEN | Q3 11:06 | 6 | 43 | Punt | 14–8 |
| LV | Q3 8:07 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 14–8 |
| DEN | Q3 7:46 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 14–8 |
| LV | Q3 6:09 | 7 | 14 | Punt | 14–8 |
| DEN | Q3 1:43 | 8 | 34 | Turnover | 14–8 |
| LV | Q4 12:55 | 7 | 60 | Turnover | 14–8 |
| DEN | Q4 9:19 | 10 | 68 | Touchdown | 22–8 |
| LV | Q4 3:15 | 7 | 19 | Turnover on downs | 22–8 |
| DEN | Q4 2:10 | 4 | 0 | Turnover on downs | 22–8 |
| LV | Q4 1:39 | 1 | 4 | Turnover | 22–8 |
| DEN | Q4 1:32 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 22–8 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 11/20 | 105 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 34 | 170 | 5.0 | 2 |
| Reuben Droughns | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Quentin Griffin | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ashley Lelie | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.6%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.49
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.07
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.