Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
42
Model margin
+2.1est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. OAK are 29-23-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 11/20 | 105 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 34 | 170 | 5.0 | 2 |
| Reuben Droughns | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Quentin Griffin | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ashley Lelie | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.6%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.49
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.07
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.