Closing spread
SF -10.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+6.1est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.154EPA / play+0.026
- 39.4%Success rate43.9%
- -0.108EPA / dropback+0.124
- -0.236EPA / rush-0.099
- 7.0%Explosive rate9.2%
- 37.2%Third-down rate41.6%
- 46.3%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
- 0.93Points / drive1.83
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.3%
- +0.075EPA / play allowed-0.045
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 28–22 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. SF are 26-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 11/20 | 120 | 2 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 8/20 | 59 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel Shipp | 13 | 30 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Damien Anderson | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 19/28 | 252 | 4 | 0 |
| Tim Rattay | 1/1 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 18 | 154 | 8.6 | 1 |
| Jamal Robertson | 8 | 46 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 2 |
| Tim Rattay | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.61%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.2%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.55
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.11