Closing spread
GB -7.5
Total
39
Model margin
+6.2est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.100EPA / play+0.065
- 38.3%Success rate45.9%
- -0.156EPA / dropback+0.126
- -0.016EPA / rush+0.001
- 7.4%Explosive rate10.4%
- 33.9%Third-down rate41.0%
- 54.5%Red-zone TD rate74.0%
- 1.44Points / drive2.11
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.013EPA / play allowed-0.077
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 41–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. GB are 38-18-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CHI–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 12:51 | 4 | 23 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 10:30 | 7 | 40 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 6:06 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 5:09 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 3:56 | 4 | 88 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| GB | Q1 1:46 | 3 | 2 | Opp touchdown | 14–0 |
| GB | Q1 0:50 | 10 | 54 | Field goal | 14–3 |
| CHI | Q2 11:12 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 14–3 |
| GB | Q2 11:04 | 3 | 1 | Field goal | 14–6 |
| CHI | Q2 9:57 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 14–6 |
| GB | Q2 7:53 | 9 | 91 | Touchdown | 14–13 |
| CHI | Q2 2:43 | 8 | 17 | Punt | 14–13 |
| GB | Q2 1:01 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–13 |
| CHI | Q2 0:30 | 4 | -9 | Turnover | 14–13 |
| CHI | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 9 | Turnover | 14–13 |
| GB | Q3 11:31 | 8 | 35 | Field goal | 14–16 |
| CHI | Q3 6:52 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 14–16 |
| GB | Q3 5:44 | 10 | 41 | Field goal | 14–19 |
| CHI | Q3 0:43 | 12 | 65 | Opp touchdown | 14–27 |
| CHI | Q4 9:16 | 5 | 34 | Punt | 14–27 |
| GB | Q4 7:36 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 14–27 |
| CHI | Q4 6:40 | 2 | 16 | Turnover | 14–27 |
| GB | Q4 6:05 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 14–27 |
| CHI | Q4 3:37 | 4 | -9 | Turnover on downs | 14–27 |
| GB | Q4 3:15 | 2 | 1 | Touchdown | 20–34 |
| CHI | Q4 2:26 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 21–34 |
| GB | Q4 2:13 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 21–34 |
| CHI | Q4 1:07 | 5 | 23 | Turnover on downs | 21–34 |
| GB | Q4 0:17 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 21–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 17/40 | 256 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Rabih Abdullah | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
| Brock Forsey | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 22/33 | 210 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 30 | 80 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Najeh Davenport | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.5%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.42
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+6.23