Closing spread
GB -7.5
Total
39
Model margin
+6.2est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.100EPA / play+0.065
- 38.3%Success rate45.9%
- -0.156EPA / dropback+0.126
- -0.016EPA / rush+0.001
- 7.4%Explosive rate10.4%
- 33.9%Third-down rate41.0%
- 54.5%Red-zone TD rate74.0%
- 1.44Points / drive2.11
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.013EPA / play allowed-0.077
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. GB are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 17/40 | 256 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Rabih Abdullah | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
| Brock Forsey | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 22/33 | 210 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 30 | 80 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Najeh Davenport | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.5%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.42
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+6.23