Closing spread
BAL -5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+6.3est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.049EPA / play-0.093
- 43.9%Success rate38.5%
- +0.126EPA / dropback-0.112
- -0.053EPA / rush-0.074
- 7.6%Explosive rate9.7%
- 44.6%Third-down rate31.7%
- 62.0%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 1.83Points / drive1.53
- 1.9%Turnover rate3.5%
- +0.077EPA / play allowed-0.194
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. BAL are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 23/31 | 214 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 11 | 45 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 5 | 43 | 8.6 | 0 |
| Rudi Johnson | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Wright | 8/19 | 145 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 30 | 180 | 6.0 | 3 |
| Chester Taylor | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Alan Ricard | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Wright | 7 | 3 | 0.4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.8%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.37
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.41
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.34